Driving effect analysis of energy-consumption carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta region

We calculate the carbon emissions related to energy consumption, from 1995 to 2010, in the Yangtze River Delta. To that end, we set up an incremental factor decomposition model of carbon emissions that makes use of the logarithmic Divisia decomposition index method. The model was adopted to analyze the driving effect of economic scale, population size, energy intensity, and energy structure on carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta region between 1995 and 2010. Our empirical results demonstrate that the economic scale effect, whose contribution ratio reached 144.19% during the study period, was a significant factor in explaining the increases in carbon emissions in the region. The effects of energy intensity, population size, and energy structure were −60.97%, 19.25%, and −2.47%, respectively. The results show that economic scale has the largest driving effect on incremental increases in carbon emissions; population size plays a negligible role in carbon emissions; and energy intensity is an important carbon-emission constraint factor. No apparent energy structure restrains carbon emissions. We then make some suggestions with respect to carbon emission reductions and economic scale, population size, energy intensity, and energy structure in the Yangtze River Delta.