کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
8124334 | 1522770 | 2018 | 34 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Managing reservoir uncertainty in petroleum field development: Defining a flexible production strategy from a set of rigid candidate strategies
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
مدیریت عدم قطعیت مخزن در زمینه توسعه نفت: تعریف یک استراتژی تولید انعطاف پذیر از مجموعه ای از استراتژی های نامناسب است
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کلمات کلیدی
تجزیه و تحلیل تصمیم گیری، مدیریت عدم اطمینان، ارزش انتظاری انعطاف پذیری، توسعه میدان، استراتژی تولید، شبیه سازی مخزن،
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه
علوم زمین و سیارات
زمین شناسی اقتصادی
چکیده انگلیسی
Decisions in petroleum field development are typically complex because of high investments under high uncertainty. To improve project performance, decision makers study the effects of uncertainty and consider actions to both mitigate risks and exploit upsides. Uncertainty can be managed with flexibility, which has high potential to manage the long-term systems in petroleum field development, reacting to uncertainty as it unfolds over time. Although increasingly popular in the petroleum industry, the literature still lacks systematic, objective approaches to quantitatively estimate the expected value of flexibility (EVoF). This work sets out a decision structure applied to petroleum field development that (1) uses a predefined set of rigid candidate production strategies (robust and specialized strategies) to define the flexible strategy, (2) establishes probabilistic-based implementation rules, and (3) improves estimates of EVoF by both accounting for the purpose of flexibility (to mitigate the risks or exploit the upsides of uncertainty) and weighting the decision maker's attitude. We show that our proposed method is applicable to complex reservoirs in the development phase, with multiple uncertainties affecting the production strategy selection. Finally, we assessed the effects of delayed implementation on EVoF.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering - Volume 171, December 2018, Pages 516-528
Journal: Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering - Volume 171, December 2018, Pages 516-528
نویسندگان
Susana M.G. Santos, Ana T.F.S. Gaspar, Denis J. Schiozer,