Replication of the historic record of Martian global dust storm occurrence in an atmospheric general circulation model

The MarsWRF Mars general circulation model (GCM) with radiatively active dust and orbit-spin coupling reproduces the observational record of Mars years with and without global dust storms (GDS) with a success rate of 77%. Atmospheric conditions diagnostic to the occurrence or non-occurrence of GDS were successfully simulated in 17 of the 22 Mars years of the available historic record. Statistical significance at the 99% level is obtained in a comparison of success rates between an occurrence model with stochastic forcing and those of the GCM forced by orbit-spin coupling. These results provide proof of concept for the orbit-spin coupling hypothesis as a factor contributing to the observed interannual variability of the weather and climate of Mars.