کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
8138955 | 1523561 | 2014 | 7 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Assessment of the 2880 impact threat from Asteroid (29075) 1950 DA
دانلود مقاله + سفارش ترجمه
دانلود مقاله ISI انگلیسی
رایگان برای ایرانیان
کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه
علوم زمین و سیارات
علوم فضا و نجوم
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
![عکس صفحه اول مقاله: Assessment of the 2880 impact threat from Asteroid (29075) 1950 DA Assessment of the 2880 impact threat from Asteroid (29075) 1950 DA](/preview/png/8138955.png)
چکیده انگلیسی
In this paper we perform an assessment of the 2880 Earth impact risk for Asteroid (29075) 1950 DA. To obtain reliable predictions we analyze the contribution of the observational dataset and the astrometric treatment, the numerical error in the long-term integration, and the different accelerations acting on the asteroid. The main source of uncertainty is the Yarkovsky effect, which we statistically model starting from 1950 DA's available physical characterization, astrometry, and dynamical properties. Before the release of 2012 radar data, this modeling suggests that 1950 DA has 99% likelihood of being a retrograde rotator. By using a 7-dimensional Monte Carlo sampling we map 1950 DA's uncertainty region to the 2880 close approach b-plane and find a 5Ã10-4 impact probability. With the recently released 2012 radar observations, the direct rotation is definitely ruled out and the impact probability decreases to 2.5Ã10-4.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Icarus - Volume 229, February 2014, Pages 321-327
Journal: Icarus - Volume 229, February 2014, Pages 321-327
نویسندگان
D. Farnocchia, S.R. Chesley,