Changes in solar wind-magnetosphere coupling with solar cycle, season, and time relative to stream interfaces

► We use state-dependent linear prediction filters to model Es-AL coupling. ► Coupling strength is weakest at maximum of solar cycle and weakest at minimum. ► Es-AL coupling is strongest at equinoxes and weakest at solstices. ► Es-AU coupling is strongest at summer solstice. ► Es coupling is weaker after a solar wind stream interface than before.