Contrasting effects of warming and autonomous breeding on single-rice productivity in China

► Global warming accelerated rice phenology in most single rice regions of China. ► Warming tended to shorten growth stages and negatively impact on rice grain yield. ► Adoption of new rice cultivars stabilized growth duration and increased yield. ► Target breeding efforts are needed to offset the impact of future warming. ► Combining data and modeling enables separation of climatic and cultivar impacts.