Reducing uncertainty and risk through forest management planning in British Columbia

The Alex Fraser Research Forest is 10,000 ha of provincial land managed for research and teaching by the University of British Columbia in central British Columbia. Experience shows us that weather is already a driving influence in forest management as extreme-weather events cause substantial damage. Biotic and abiotic disturbances create significant uncertainty for managers, and present a significant risk of loss to the growing stock. Forecasts of climate change indicate increasing average temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns. These forecasts also suggest more extreme-weather events. Changing weather patterns mean changing interactions between forests and disturbance agents, likely resulting in unprecedented levels of damage. Research forest managers have developed an approach to managing this uncertainty and risk through forest management planning. If climate change will lead to more extreme weather, it is expected that adapting to climate change will equate to managing risk. A retrospective examination of the response to the mountain pine beetle outbreak (1991–2005) has enabled us to document our approach to managing the risk of damage and loss. Forest management planning provides a framework to establish priorities, set objectives and devise strategies to maintain the values that are important on research forests as they adapt to climate change.

► Foresters face significant uncertainty and risk from biotic and abiotic disturbance.
► Climate change will increase uncertainty by changing disturbance regimes.
► Forest management plans set priorities and strategies to manage impacts.
► We review the management of mountain pine beetle at the Alex Fraser Research Forest.
► We provide lessons learned that will support adaptation to climate change.