An empirical mixed model to quantify climate influence on the growth of Pinus halepensis Mill. stands in South-Eastern Spain

The influence of climate on forest stand composition, development and growth is undeniable. Many studies have tried to quantify the effect of climatic variables on forest growth and yield. These works become especially important because there is a need to predict the effects of climate change on the development of forest ecosystems. One of the ways of facing this problem is the inclusion of climatic variables into the classic empirical growth models. The work has a double objective: (i) to identify the indicators which best describe the effect of climate on Pinus halepensis growth and (ii) to quantify such effect in several scenarios of rainfall decrease which are likely to occur in the Mediterranean area.A growth mixed model for P. halepensis including climatic variables is presented in this work. Growth estimates are based on data from the Spanish National Forest Inventory (SNFI). The best results are obtained for the indices including rainfall, or rainfall and temperature together, with annual precipitation, precipitation effectiveness, Emberger’s index or free bioclimatic intensity standing out among them. The final model includes Emberger’s index, free bioclimatic intensity and interactions between competition and climate indices. The results obtained show that a rainfall decrease about 5% leads to a decrease in volume growth of 5.5–7.5% depending on site quality.

► We have quantified climate influence on forest growth by including climatic indices in an empirical growth model.
► We have identified the climatic variables which best describe the effect of climate on Pinus halepensis growth in SE Spain.
► We have applied the model to several climate change scenarios to assess their impact on forest growth.
► The model has been developed from National Forest Inventory and meteorological data.