Intrapopulation variation in flowering phenology and fecundity of silver birch, implications for adaptability to changing climate

Earlier modeling has suggested that long distance gene flow is of importance in increasing the adaptability of tree populations in a changing climate. In times of warming temperatures, early flowering phenotypes may be favored, because early flowering may be connected to early onset of growth. Long term direct measurements of flowering, pollen cloud and intrapopulation fecundity variations are needed to test this hypothesis. Having one of the furthest transported types of pollen grains, birch may have good potential for long distance gene flow. Our daily observations over eight years, of 30 silver birches (Betula pendula Roth), showed that the onset and duration of flowering phenology was determined by the accumulation of spring temperature sums, but the window for potential long distance gene flow was narrow. The interannual phenology variations were large, the order of timing of female and male catkins in various trees of this monoecious species tended to differ, and the timing of generative and vegetative spring phenologies were not correlated at tree level. Early flowering trees tended to have a higher variation in germinability than later flowering trees. No other connection between timing of phenology of flowering and seed quantity or quality was found. Although stochastic climatic conditions produce interannually variable phenological windows, probability for long distance gene flow from areas differing in timing of spring temperature accumulations may be low in silver birch. Intertree variations in fecundity were high, and the majority of seeds and pollen were produced by only a few trees. Moreover, the amount of seeds produced was positively related to seed germinability, thus large phenotypic fecundity variations may decrease interannual genetic variations in seed sets.

► We observed treespecific generative variation within birch forest over eigth years.
► Phenological window for long distance pollen in silver birch is very limited.
► Treespecific order in vegetative and generative spring phenology varies interannually.
► Most of the pollen and seed is produced by a small number of Individuals.
► Early flowering seems not to provide any fitness advantage in present Climate.