Effects of thinning level and site productivity on age-related changes in stand volume growth can be explained by a single rescaled growth curve

In this study, I developed a nonlinear mixed-effects model based on the Richards curve that describes the effects of thinning and site productivity on stand volume growth. I fitted the model to data from 29 long-term experimental monitoring plots in Japanese cedar (Cryptomeria japonica D. Don) plantations in northeastern Japan. Simulations using the model on high-productivity sites and at moderate thinning intensities indicated that net yields after ca. 80 years were lower in unthinned stands than in thinned stands; in other cases, such as at younger ages and at sites with low and average productivities, net yields were similar for each thinning intensity (including no thinning). These results could be attributed to the fact that the net current annual increment in stand volume (CAInet) in the thinned stands exceeded that of the unthinned stands after a certain age (the “inversion” age) and to the negative correlation between site productivity and the inversion age. In addition, I found that a single rescaled growth curve was capable of describing the growth in stand volume at sites with different thinning histories and site productivities. This rescaled curve simply and clearly explained the effects of thinning and site productivity on stand volume growth. The existence of a single curve suggests that the positive effect of thinning on stand volume growth does not depend on site productivity, but it will require patient measurements over longer periods to reveal a positive effect at sites with low productivity.