کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
8868946 | 1622539 | 2018 | 12 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Development of an integrated model for energy systems planning and carbon dioxide mitigation under uncertainty - Tradeoffs between two-level decision makers
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
توسعه یک مدل یکپارچه برای برنامه ریزی سیستم های انرژی و مقابله با کاهش دی اکسید کربن تحت نام عدم اطمینان - تجارت بین تصمیم گیرندگان دو سطح
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کلمات کلیدی
برنامه نویسی سطحی، دی اکسید کربن، تسکین دهنده، تصمیم سازی، برنامه ریزی سیستم های انرژی، عدم قطعیت،
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم زیستی و بیوفناوری
علوم محیط زیست
بهداشت، سم شناسی و جهش زایی
چکیده انگلیسی
A bi-level fuzzy programming (BFLP) method was developed for energy systems planning (ESP) and carbon dioxide (CO2) mitigation under uncertainty. BFLP could handle fuzzy information and leader-follower problem in decision-making processes. It could also address the tradeoffs among different decision makers in two decision-making levels through prioritizing the most important goal. Then, a BFLP-ESP model was formulated for planning energy system of Beijing, in which the upper-level objective is to minimize CO2 emission and the lower-level objective is to minimize the system cost. Results provided a range of decision alternatives that corresponded to a tradeoff between system optimality and reliability under uncertainty. Compared to the single-level model with a target to minimize system cost, the amounts of pollutant/CO2 emissions from BFLP-ESP were reduced since the study system would prefer more clean energies (i.e. natural gas, LPG and electricity) to replace coal fuel. Decision alternatives from BFLP were more beneficial for supporting Beijing to adjust its energy mix and enact its emission-abatement policy. Results also revealed that the low-carbon policy for power plants (e.g., shutting down all coal-fired power plants) could lead to a potentially increment of imported energy for Beijing, which would increase the risk of energy shortage. The findings could help decision makers analyze the interactions between different stakeholders in ESP and provide useful information for policy design under uncertainty.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Environmental Research - Volume 164, July 2018, Pages 367-378
Journal: Environmental Research - Volume 164, July 2018, Pages 367-378
نویسندگان
S.W. Jin, Y.P. Li, L.P. Xu,