Potentiality of sugarcane expansion under irrigation conditions considering natural and potential water availability

In the face of population growth and the consequent increase in water and energy consumption, coupled with concern about climate change, society has sought renewable energy sources such as biofuels. Brazil has excelled in the production of ethanol using sugarcane as its raw material, and in recent years there has been an advance in sugarcane production towards the Brazilian Cerrado due to the existence of suitable areas and the availability of water to expand irrigated agriculture. Recognizing this, we sought to analyze the potential for expansion of the planted areas in the Paracatu River basin under full and deficit conditions of irrigation and both natural and potential water availability. Potential irrigation areas (PIAs) were estimated as a function of the average required unit flow rates for sugarcane irrigation and water availability according to the criteria for granting concessions in the State of Minas Gerais, which were compared to the areas currently planted with sugarcane and with all crops. In a macro scale analysis, considering that the water available is only for irrigation and that it is the only restrictive factor for the expansion of the agricultural areas, based on the minimum annual flow, it would be possible to irrigate in the Paracatu River basin more than 120,000 ha, indicating that the water demands could be supplied in 21% of the planted areas already existing in the basin, which could be increased by up to 19% by the use of deficit irrigation. With the availability of water potential, it would be possible to supply the water demands of the entire area planted with permanent and temporary crops, and there is also the possibility of expansion into up to 170% of these areas.