کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
8877079 | 1623984 | 2018 | 31 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
SEIRS epidemics with disease fatalities in growing populations
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کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم زیستی و بیوفناوری
علوم کشاورزی و بیولوژیک
علوم کشاورزی و بیولوژیک (عمومی)
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چکیده انگلیسی
An SEIRS epidemic with disease fatalities is introduced in a growing population (modelled as a super-critical linear birth and death process). The study of the initial phase of the epidemic is stochastic, while the analysis of the major outbreaks is deterministic. Depending on the values of the parameters, the following scenarios are possible. i) The disease dies out quickly, only infecting few; ii) the epidemic takes off, the number of infected individuals grows exponentially, but the fraction of infected individuals remains negligible; iii) the epidemic takes off, the number of infected grows initially quicker than the population, the disease fatalities diminish the growth rate of the population, but it remains super critical, and the fraction of infected go to an endemic equilibrium; iv) the epidemic takes off, the number of infected individuals grows initially quicker than the population, the diseases fatalities turn the exponential growth of the population to an exponential decay.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Mathematical Biosciences - Volume 296, February 2018, Pages 45-59
Journal: Mathematical Biosciences - Volume 296, February 2018, Pages 45-59
نویسندگان
Tom Britton, Désiré Ouédraogo,