Long-term trends in dominant-height growth of black pine using dynamic models

Black pine (Pinus nigra Arn.) is a pan-Mediterranean species of high ecological importance and one of the most important timber species in the area. We compare several site dependent height–age models for the species in three regions along its natural distribution area in Spain. The best model was a generalized algebraic difference approach (GADA) polymorphic model with variable asymptotes (Cieszewski, C.J., Bailey, R.L., 2000. Generalized algebraic difference approach: theory based derivation of dynamic site equations with polymorphism and variable asymptotes. For. Sci. 46, 116–126). There was no significant increase in error when a reduced model common to the three regions was tested instead of a full model with region-specific parameters. To study possible biases of the proposed model along the trees’ lifespan we carried out a LOWESS analysis of residuals in time. We detected deviations in the model residuals, and a patent growth reduction in the 1960s and 1970s, which might be related to climate and/or changing stand characteristics. Departures from estimated mean past growth should be monitored in the future to adapt models to a changing environment.