Red-tree vole habitat suitability modeling: Implications for conservation and management

In the Pacific Northwest, USA, red-tree voles (Arborimus longicaudus) are of conservation and management interest owing to their apparent association with late-seral forests and the relatively small extent of such forests, largely a function of timber harvest, fire, and conversion of forests to non-forest uses during the past century. We created and evaluated a series of red-tree vole habitat association models, and applied the best model to evaluate tree vole habitat quality within and outside of reserves throughout most of their range in Oregon and northern California. We modeled presence and absence of tree vole nests across a gradient of biotic, abiotic, and spatial features; and within and outside of reserves. The best model included spatial coordinates, percent slope, basal area of trees with diameter at breast height (dbh) between 45 and 90 cm, maximum tree dbh, and standard deviation of conifer dbh. Plots with tree vole nests contained many late-seral/old-growth forest attributes such as large diameter, older, and variably sized trees. Evaluation of the best model, including rigorous cross-validation, showed the model to be statistically robust and to have very good/excellent predictive ability. Reserves had significantly higher mean habitat quality than non-reserved lands, and reserves had much more high quality habitat than non-reserves.