Modelling jay (Garrulus glandarius) abundance and distribution for oak regeneration assessment in Mediterranean landscapes

Because natural regeneration of oak is strongly dependent on jay abundance and distribution, we need to understand the determinants of jay abundance and occurrence as a first step to assess oak regeneration. In this paper we modelled the jay population distribution and abundance in a Mediterranean landscape mosaic of the eastern Iberian Peninsula (Valencia, east Spain). The methodology was based on assessing landscape attributes (habitat composition and configuration variables) on seven 9-km2 sites and registering jay fledgling locations. Using a stepwise regression model we determined the variables that best explained the jay density. The probability of occurrence of jay nests within each site was assessed by comparing the landscape attributes of jay and non-jay areas within each site. Results were validated by predicting each site on the basis of data from the remaining six sites and then calculating the deviation between the predicted and the observed values in the field. The results suggest that jay density correlates positively with forest cover and landscape heterogeneity variables, and negatively with shrubland cover. Validation of the results showed that the model is reasonably effective in predicting both jay abundance and distribution at the extent and resolution used.