Forest vegetation change in southeast Ohio: Do older forests serve as useful models for predicting the successional trajectory of future forests?

We compared stand structure and stand dynamics between forests that had originated during three distinct periods of human influence: a pre-European settlement period of native American influence, a post-European settlement period of heavy agricultural use and subsequent land abandonment, and a modern period of forest regrowth and management as part of the Wayne National Forest. Pre-European settlement old-growth forests were reconstructed from 1804 survey records, post-European settlement forests were mature second-growth forests (84–129 years old), and post-1930 origin forests were younger forests (24–64 years old). The 1930 date was selected to separate the effects of more modern management practices, particularly fire exclusion, from older management practices. The overstory composition and structure of the older pre-European and post-European settlement forests were fairly similar: both the forest types were dominated by oaks (Quercus spp.). In contrast, the younger post-1930 origin forests were very different. Maples (Acer spp.), early successional pioneer species, and a few scattered oaks comprised the overstories of these stands. The older forests did not serve as an accurate model for predicting the composition and structure of the younger forests. Moreover, the regeneration layers of both the older and younger forests are dominated by maples. If present conditions persist, both these forest types will likely converge into similar, later successional maple-dominated forests. Vegetation modelers and land managers need to use caution when using current older forests as templates to predict the composition of future forests on similar sites.