On the current and future availability of gallium

• By-product availability curves for gallium produced from bauxite, sulphidic zinc ores and coal are constructed and used to assess the potential for increases in primary gallium production.
• Growth trends in primary gallium, bauxite and zinc production are extrapolated into the future to determine how long it will be possible to cover growing gallium demand from standard sources.
• The supply potential for by-product gallium is found to be very large and is not expected to be used completely before the second half of the 21st century.
• Results refute the assertion that gallium supply is currently physically restricted by the production of its associated main products.

By-product availability curves were constructed for the production of gallium from bauxite, sulphidic zinc ores and coal. They were used to assess the nature of the current supply regime, as well as its potential future development. Not only was the current situation found to be firmly in the elastic supply regime for all three raw materials, indicating that significant future increases in primary gallium production are possible without increases in the production of the corresponding main products, but it was also found that current supply potential from bauxite and sulphidic zinc ores alone is at least five times higher than current primary production. Coal offers a significant additional supply potential (currently at least ~1.3 times primary gallium production). An extrapolation of growth trends for the primary production of bauxite, zinc and gallium into the future indicates that the minimum supply potential will not be utilised completely before 2050. Once this point is reached, additional increases in primary gallium production relative to the production of bauxite and zinc will still be possible via decreases in the relevant cut-off grades for extraction from these raw materials. No persistent shortages are expected in the foreseeable future. Short-term shortages might, however, occur but will not be due to geological factors. Our results clearly refute the notion that the supply of all by-product high-tech metals is currently restricted by their physical abundance in associated main products. Rather, the chief limitation appears to be installed production capacity.