Application of an integrated system dynamics and cellular automata model for urban growth assessment: A case study of Shanghai, China

In the context of rapid urbanization, accurate assessment of urban growth has become increasingly necessary for understanding environmental impacts and supporting urban planning toward a sustainable development. In this paper, we present an integrated system dynamics and cellular automata model not only in socio-economic driving forces analysis but also in urban spatial pattern evaluation. Shanghai city in China is selected as a case to fulfill the tasks. The major findings are summarized as follows: (1) the integrated model is proved to be competent in monitoring and projecting the dynamics of urban growth. (2) From 2000 to 2020, the urban area of Shanghai is predicted to increase at an annual rate of 3%, and amount 1474 km2 in 2020. Spatially, the newly increased urban land is most likely to expand around the vicinity of city center or sub-centers, and mainly along a west–east axis and a north–south axis. Road network planning plays an important role in directing the development of newly urbanized land.