Evaluating policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from private transportation

• We study household decisions on vehicle holding, type/vintage, and miles travelled.
• The econometric model is integrated with MOVES 2014 to estimate GHG emissions.
• Results show that average annual GHG emissions per vehicle is 5.15 tons.
• Fuel tax is more effective in reducing GHGEs than ownership tax and purchase tax.
• Fuel tax affects mainly households with fewer vehicles.

This paper proposes a model system to forecast household greenhouse gas emissions (GHGEs) from private transportation. The proposed model combines an integrated discrete-continuous car ownership model with MOVES 2014. Four modeling components are calibrated and applied to the calculation of GHGEs: vehicle quantity, vehicle type and vintage, miles traveled, and rates of GHGEs. The model is applied to the Washington D.C. Metropolitan Area. Three tax schemes are evaluated: vehicle ownership tax, purchase tax and fuel tax. We calculate that the average GHGEs per vehicle is 5.15 tons of carbon dioxide-equivalent (CO2E) gases. Our results show that: (a) a fuel tax is the most effective way to reduce vehicle GHGEs, especially for households with fewer vehicles; (b) a purchase tax reduces vehicle GHGEs mainly by decreasing vehicle quantity for households with more vehicles; and (c) an ownership tax reduces vehicle GHGEs by decreasing both vehicle quantity and miles traveled.