Modeling the decline in pneumococcal acute otitis media following the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines in the US

► We hypothesized serotype replacement has resulted in fewer episodes of SP-AOM. ► We modeled the change in proportion of SP colonized children who would develop SP-AOM. ► Our model is based on changing nasopharyngeal serotype distributions and serotype invasiveness. ► Analysis indicates 12% decline in pneumococcal AOM in young children between 2000 and 2007. ► Analysis predicts PCV13 will further decrease pneumococcal AOM additional 27% from 2007 to 2013.