Modèle mathématique d'estimation du délai de survie après des plaies artérielles des vaisseaux du cœur causées par un projectile d'arme à feu

Estimating the survival time of victims after a vascular wound caused by firearms is a major problem that judicial authorities have to deal with in their investigations. It is also a question frequently put to the forensic physicians during their testimony in front of a criminal court. However, there is at present no tool that might offer a specific solution to the problem in the literature. We propose, from the case of a 19-year-old young man, died during a burglary of an intrathoracic gunshot with multiple wounds of the heart vessels, an estimation of the survival time, with a simple mathematical model. This estimation must be however interpreted with huge caution because of important complexity of the hemorrhagic shock physiopathology. This model must be interpreted by readers as an aid for reflexion and absolutely not as a response tool with high degree of scientific validity.