کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی ترجمه فارسی نسخه تمام متن
11023237 1701321 2019 13 صفحه PDF سفارش دهید دانلود کنید
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Comprehensive evaluation and scenario simulation for the water resources carrying capacity in Xi'an city, China
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
شبیه سازی جامع ارزیابی و سناریو برای ظرفیت حمل و نقل منابع آب در شهر شیان، چین
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه مهندسی انرژی انرژی های تجدید پذیر، توسعه پایدار و محیط زیست
چکیده انگلیسی
The quantity and quality of water resources are of great importance in maintaining urban socio-economic development. Accordingly, substantial research has been conducted on the concept of the water resources carrying capacity (WRCC). In this study, analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and system dynamics (SD) models were combined to construct a multi-criteria evaluation system of the WRCC and a socio-economic/water resources SD model for Xi'an. The developmental trends of the society, economy, water supply/demand, and wastewater discharge were obtained from 2015 to 2020 using five scenarios designed for distinct purposes; these scenarios and trends were comprehensively evaluated using a combination of qualitative and quantitative analyses. The results indicated that the WRCC (0.32 in 2020) in Xi'an will shift from a normal to a poor state if the current social development pattern is maintained; therefore, we conclude that the socio-economic development of Xi'an is unsustainable. However, under a comprehensive scheme, the WRCC index (0.64 in 2020) will increase by 48% compared with the WRCC index under a business-as-usual scenario. Further, some practical suggestions, including the promotion of industrial reforms and the improvement of water-use efficiency and recycling policies, were provided for improving the regional WRCC.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Environmental Management - Volume 230, 15 January 2019, Pages 221-233
نویسندگان
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