A multi-period modelling and optimization approach to the planning of China's power sector with consideration of carbon dioxide mitigation

A great challenge China's power sector faces is to mitigate its carbon dioxide emissions while satisfying the ever-increasing power demand. Optimal planning of the power sector with consideration of carbon mitigation for a long-term future remains a complex task, involving many technical alternatives and an infinite number of possible plants installations, retrofitting, and decommissioning over the planning horizon. This paper presents a multi-period modelling and optimization framework for the optimal planning of China's power sector between 2010 and 2050. The planning horizon is divided into several time intervals, over which power plants of all types can be installed, retrofitted, or closed. Impacts of carbon mitigation related measures, including carbon cap and price, application of carbon capture and sequestration, are explicitly represented. A case study follows, based on real-life data of existing capacity of China's power sector in 2009, and a year-by-year development plan for China's power sector is proposed.

► Applications of IGCC and CCS, including cases of direct construction and retrofit, are explicitly presented in the model.
► Detailed real-life data of the existing capacity of China's power sector as of 2009 is obtained and applied in the model.
► Cap-and-Trade policy is quantitatively simulated in the model, which is the first time for studying China's power sector.
► An optimal pathway with the lowest accumulated cost is gained, which is of great significance for China's power sector.