Regional long-term model of radioactivity dispersion and fate in the Northwestern Pacific and adjacent seas: application to the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident

• We applied box model with a dynamical food-chain model for the Northwestern Pacific.
• The transport and fate of radioactivity in sea were simulated for the period 1945–2040.
• A radiological assessment for marine exposure pathways was performed for the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident.
• The predicted concentration of 137Cs for fish returns to background level in 2014–2016.
• The collective dose due to ingestion of sea food increased for Japan in 2011 in 6 times.

The compartment model POSEIDON-R was modified and applied to the Northwestern Pacific and adjacent seas to simulate the transport and fate of radioactivity in the period 1945–2010, and to perform a radiological assessment on the releases of radioactivity due to the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident for the period 2011–2040. The model predicts the dispersion of radioactivity in the water column and in sediments, the transfer of radionuclides throughout the marine food web, and subsequent doses to humans due to the consumption of marine products. A generic predictive dynamic food-chain model is used instead of the biological concentration factor (BCF) approach. The radionuclide uptake model for fish has as a central feature the accumulation of radionuclides in the target tissue. The three layer structure of the water column makes it possible to describe the vertical structure of radioactivity in deep waters. In total 175 compartments cover the Northwestern Pacific, the East China and Yellow Seas and the East/Japan Sea. The model was validated from 137Cs data for the period 1945–2010. Calculated concentrations of 137Cs in water, bottom sediments and marine organisms in the coastal compartment, before and after the accident, are in close agreement with measurements from the Japanese agencies. The agreement for water is achieved when an additional continuous flux of 3.6 TBq y−1 is used for underground leakage of contaminated water from the Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP, during the three years following the accident. The dynamic food web model predicts that due to the delay of the transfer throughout the food web, the concentration of 137Cs for piscivorous fishes returns to background level only in 2016. For the year 2011, the calculated individual dose rate for Fukushima Prefecture due to consumption of fishery products is 3.6 μSv y−1. Following the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident the collective dose due to ingestion of marine products for Japan increased in 2011 by a factor of 6 in comparison with 2010.