MUD: a Model to investigate the migration of 137Cs in the Urban environment and Drainage and sewage treatment systems

A model is presented for the migration of 137Cs in the urban environment, including the drainage systems and the sewage treatment plants, with flexibility to be adapted to different configurations common in urban areas. The dynamics of 137Cs is simulated both under natural evolution and in case of forced decontamination, which can have a direct impact on the radioactivity going to sewers. The model assesses the activity concentrated in sewage sludge and that discharged with the treated or untreated effluent to the receiving watercourse. Tests made for two post-Chernobyl contamination scenarios in Sweden show differences between model predictions and observed results within the range of the experimental uncertainties. An uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the main model parameters indicates that some parameters may have a significant influence on the results of the model. Moreover, the model uncertainty is driven by a few parameters; therefore, additional research could be necessary into these parameters, aiming at simplifying the model without losing its predictive power.