کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
1778213 | 1523681 | 2007 | 5 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Forecasting coronal mass ejections from line-of-sight magnetograms
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کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه
علوم زمین و سیارات
فیزیک زمین (ژئو فیزیک)
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چکیده انگلیسی
We show that the length of strong-gradient, strong-field main neutral line, LSGM, which can be measured from line-of-sight magnetograms such as from SOHO/MDI, is both a measure of active-region nonpotentiality and a useful predictor of an active region's future Coronal mass ejections (CME) productivity. To demonstrate that LSGM is a nonpotentiality measure, we show that it is strongly correlated with a direct measure of nonpotentiality. For an appropriate choice of a threshold value, an active region's measured LSGM can be used as a predictor of whether the active region will produce a CME within a few days after the magnetogram. For our set of 36 Marshall Space Flight CentreMSFC vector magnetograms of bipolar active regions, LSGM is found to have a success rate of 80% for prediction of CME productivity in the 0-2 day window. The development of LSGM as a method of measuring nonpotentiality for forecasting large, fast CMEs from present space-based assets is of value to NASA's space exploration initiative (manned missions to the Moon and Mars).
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics - Volume 69, Issues 1â2, February 2007, Pages 86-90
Journal: Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics - Volume 69, Issues 1â2, February 2007, Pages 86-90
نویسندگان
D.A. Falconer, R.L. Moore, G.A. Gary,