Under-explored assumptions in influenza vaccination models: Implications for the universal vaccination of children

The aim of this study was to explore several important (but uncertain) assumptions in influenza models which affect the estimated benefits of vaccination programs. We combined consideration of these factors with the seasonal variability of influenza transmissibility to gain a better understanding of how they may influence influenza control efforts. As our case study, we considered the potential impact of universal seasonal childhood vaccination in Australia using a simplified age-stratified Susceptible Exposed Infectious Recovered (SEIR) model to simulate influenza epidemics and the impact of vaccination. We found that the choice of vaccine efficacy model was influential in determining the impact of vaccination. This choice interacted with other model assumption such as those around the infectiousness of asymptomatic cases and the match of the vaccine to the circulating strains. The methodological approach used to estimate influenza hospitalisations was also highly influential. Our study highlights the role that key modelling assumptions play when estimating the impact of vaccination against influenza.

► We examined the impact of several under-explored assumptions in influenza models.
► The vaccine efficacy model used was influential and interacted with other assumptions.
► The approach used to estimate influenza hospitalisations was also important.