The predicted impact of HPV vaccination on male infections and male HPV-related cancers in Australia

Australia implemented a National HPV Vaccination Program in 2007, with routine vaccination of 12–13 year old females and catch-up in females aged 13–26 years to 2009. The aim of this study was to estimate the impact of the current female-only national vaccination program on males, and then to estimate the incremental benefits to males from being included in the program. We used preliminary data to estimate vaccination coverage in females. We then fitted a dynamic model of sexual behaviour and HPV transmission in Australia to local data on female pre-vaccination age-specific HPV prevalence, predicted the corresponding pre-vaccination prevalence in males due to heterosexual transmission, and modelled the short and long term impact of female-only versus female-and-male vaccination programs. The estimated 3-dose female coverage rates were 78% (range 70–80%) for ongoing coverage in 12–13 year old girls; and from 74% (range 70–80%) in 14 year olds, to 25% (range 15–35%) for women aged 26 years old in 2007. The median estimate for age-standardised pre-vaccination HPV 16 prevalence in females and males aged 15–59 years was 3.2% (95% range: 2.4–4.1%) and 3.1% (95% range: 2.2–4.2%), respectively. The current program in females is predicted to result in a 68% reduction in male HPV 16 infections by 2050, leading to an estimated long term reduction of 14% in rates of cancers of the head, neck and anogenital area. The estimated proportion of the maximum possible vaccine-conferred benefit to males from a female-and-male program which will be achieved by female-only vaccination is 73% (range in probabilistic sensitivity analysis: 53–78%). In conclusion, up to three-quarters of the maximum possible vaccination-conferred benefit to males due to reduced heterosexual transmission will be achieved by the existing female-only program.