کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
2406957 1103103 2008 11 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Basic mathematical models for the temporal dynamics of HAV in medium-endemicity Italian areas
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم زیستی و بیوفناوری ایمنی شناسی و میکروب شناسی ایمونولوژی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Basic mathematical models for the temporal dynamics of HAV in medium-endemicity Italian areas
چکیده انگلیسی

SummaryIn some Southern Italy areas Hepatitis A still represents a serious public health issue. In 1996 a big epidemics in Puglia led that region to adopt a mass vaccination programme. In this paper a basic mathematical model for the temporal trends of Hepatitis A Virus (HAV) in Southern Italy is proposed and investigated. The model includes the main distinctive features of HAV in Southern Italy, i.e. multiplicity of exposure factors, and periodic forcing caused by yearly patterns of seafood consumption. The analysis illustrates the role played by the risk factors on equilibria, stability, and the period of HAV oscillations, both natural and in presence of vaccination. The model also fits well temporal trends of HAV in Southern Italy, suggesting that it is a good starting point for more structured modelling.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Vaccine - Volume 26, Issue 13, 20 March 2008, Pages 1697–1707
نویسندگان
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