Earlier rice phenology as a result of climate change can increase the risk of cold damage during reproductive growth in northern Japan

The present study analyzed the impact of earlier rice phenology as a result of climate change on the risk of cold damage during reproductive growth using the historical temperature record from 1961 to 2010 at four locations in northern Japan. During this period, heading date has become 0.7–1.9 days earlier per 10 years. Air temperatures during the booting stage (6–15 days before heading) decreased by 0.18 °C per 10 years even though the air temperature on a given calendar date has increased slightly. The estimated potential yield losses caused by cold damage have increased since the start of the study period. Thus, the advance in phonological events as a result of global warming is likely to increase the risk of future yield losses, and this has important implications for future adaptation strategies (breeding new cultivars and changing crop management strategies) to reduce the risk of cold damage.

► A hypothesis that earlier heading date in response to a warming climate could affect the risk of cold damage to rice was tested.
► The estimated potential yield losses caused by cold damage increased even though the air temperature on a given calendar date has increased slightly.
► These results support the hypothesis that earlier rice phenology has increased the risk of yield losses caused by cold damage.