Appraisal of random and systematic land cover transitions for regional water balance and revegetation strategies

This study describes the use of landscape transition analysis as a means for effective basin management. Land cover transitions from 1995 to 2002 were analyzed using a cross-tabulation matrix for an important economic zone in south-west Victoria, Australia. Specifically, the matrix was used to determine whether the transitions were random or systematic. Random landscape transitions occur when a land cover replaces other land covers in proportion to their availability. Systematic landscape transitions occur when there are deviations from random patterns, and land use types ‘target’ other land use types for replacement. The analysis was conducted with 11 land cover categories and showed that dryland pastures have been systematically losing area to dryland crops and blue gum (Eucalyptus globulus) plantations. Dryland crops have systematically expanded in the north-east of the catchment, an area where increasing in-stream salinization has occurred concurrently with this transition. The systematic expansion of the blue gum plantations has been predominantly in the south-west of the catchment and has the potential to reduce stream flows and groundwater recharge in an already water-stressed region, as blue gums use more water than the dryland pastures they are replacing. All other transitions were largely random. These findings have implications for land use planning in the study area for regional water balance and revegetation strategies. Landscape transition analysis is a cost-effective means of contributing to the management of water resources at a regional scale, and is highly recommended for future basin planning.