Modelling the flood cycle, aquaculture development potential and risk using MODIS data: A case study for the floodplain of the Rio Paraná, Argentina

• We demonstrate a method for using MODIS data to predict surface water flooding.
• This tool provides objective decision support for inland aquaculture development.
• The tool has already been used to select construction sites within Argentina.

Aquaculture has been developing in Argentina since the early 20th century and although it is still considered a marginal activity it has grown quickly in recent years. The Paraná River and its floodplain potentially provide access to considerable water resources and culture sites but this environment is highly influenced by flooding episodes which not only defines it but also represents an issue for the establishment of fish farms in the area.Suitability and risk for aquaculture development were assessed using an 11 year time series consisting of 8-day composites from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The data was used in association with established algorithms to indicate areas of surface water, the percentage of the time series where surface water flooding occurred and the relative exposure to flood risk in the lower Rio Paraná. 78% of the study area is unaffected by flooding, and 7% is permanent water bodies. The remainder is exposed to varying levels of risk, although very low risk areas may be enabled for aquaculture through engineering solutions. The tools described in this study can inform the site selection process in order to avoid or minimise the risk from flooding to potential aquaculture developments.