Probabilistic prediction model for average bond strength at steel–concrete interface considering corrosion effect

• Simple probabilistic model is proposed to predict bond strength considering corrosion.
• To develop the bond model, comprehensive database is collected from the literature.
• Proposed bond strength model provides accurate and unbiased predictions.
• Modeling of bond is crucial when the provided development length is insufficient.
• Calculation of minimum development length for corroded rebars is proposed.

Considerable numbers of reinforced concrete (RC) bridges in the US are structurally deficient mainly due to corrosion. Corrosion affects the structural integrity by deteriorating the material properties and the bond at the steel–concrete interface. Currently, the available bond strength models considering corrosion deterioration are either complex or developed based on the limited database. This paper proposes a simple probabilistic model of bond strength considering corrosion using multivariable regression based on a comprehensive database collected from the literature. The predictions are found to be accurate and unbiased when compared with the experimental results. Then, the proposed bond model is employed in the nonlinear finite element models of intact and corroded RC beams to investigate the importance of steel–concrete bond modeling on evaluating flexural behavior of the beams. Lastly, the minimum required development length for a given corrosion level is calculated and its sufficiency is investigated through a numerical analysis.