Incorporation of decision, game, and Bayesian game theory in an emergency evacuation exit decision model

• Decision, game and Bayesian game theory used to model exit decisions.
• Value function formed from biological-based energy consumption.
• Different game forms used to allow trades between computational burden and model fidelity.
• Bayesian game form allows beliefs to be held on opponents by individuals.
• Variable fidelity decision model using decision analysis tools to captures human traits and tendencies in exit decisions.

This paper explores the use of utility and game theory to model egress decisions for exit choices found in evacuations. These mathematically rigorous theories serve as a basis for individual exit decision making that captures interactions between evacuees. The model presented in this paper is fundamentally different from traditional evacuation simulators that capture the exit selection behaviour through simple heuristics or objective functions. A utility function based on energy consumption of exit alternatives is created that captures evacuee risk preferences and beliefs. Multiple game forms are created to allow for trade-offs between model fidelity and computational complexity. These models range from Bayesian games to simplified normal games. Multiple examples and validations are used to show that the decision analysis model developed here captures natural human tendencies and characteristics. This enables creation of a high fidelity exit decision model that simulates exit selection of evacuees.