کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
2813487 1569433 2016 9 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Homo-psychologicus: Reactionary behavioural aspects of epidemics
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم زیستی و بیوفناوری علوم کشاورزی و بیولوژیک بوم شناسی، تکامل، رفتار و سامانه شناسی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Homo-psychologicus: Reactionary behavioural aspects of epidemics
چکیده انگلیسی


• We formulate an in silico model of spontaneous behavioural responses to epidemics.
• The interactions between disease and behavioural dynamics are investigated.
• Different epidemic outcomes are possible including behavioural-prevalence elasticity.

We formulate an in silico model of pathogen avoidance mechanism and investigate its impact on defensive behavioural measures (e.g., spontaneous social exclusions and distancing, crowd avoidance and voluntary vaccination adaptation). In particular, we use SIR(B)S (e.g., susceptible-infected-recovered with additional behavioural component) model to investigate the impact of homo-psychologicus aspects of epidemics. We focus on reactionary behavioural changes, which apply to both social distancing and voluntary vaccination participations. Our analyses reveal complex relationships between spontaneous and uncoordinated behavioural changes, the emergence of its contagion properties, and mitigation of infectious diseases. We find that the presence of effective behavioural changes can impede the persistence of disease. Furthermore, it was found that under perfect effective behavioural change, there are three regions in the response factor (e.g., imitation and/or reactionary) and behavioural scale factor (e.g., global/local) factors ρ–α behavioural space. Mainly, (1) disease is always endemic even in the presence of behavioural change, (2) behavioural-prevalence plasticity is observed and disease can sometimes be eradication, and (3) elimination of endemic disease under permanence of permanent behavioural change is achieved. These results suggest that preventive behavioural changes (e.g., non-pharmaceutical prophylactic measures, social distancing and exclusion, crowd avoidance) are influenced by individual differences in perception of risks and are a salient feature of epidemics. Additionally, these findings indicates that care needs to be taken when considering the effect of adaptive behavioural change in predicting the course of epidemics, and as well as the interpretation and development of the public health measures that account for spontaneous behavioural changes.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Epidemics - Volume 14, March 2016, Pages 45–53
نویسندگان
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