The validity of critical thinking tests for predicting degree performance: A longitudinal study

• The ‘real world’ practice of using critical thinking tests for university admissions was explored.
• Critical thinking tests showed added value for predicting future degree marks.
• The critical thinking skill of ‘inference’ was found to be a key predictor of performance.
• Critical thinking dispositions were not found to be predictive of performance.

This study explored the validity of using critical thinking tests to predict final psychology degree marks over and above that already predicted by traditional admission exams (A-levels). Participants were a longitudinal sample of 109 psychology students from a university in the United Kingdom. The outcome measures were: total degree marks; and end of year marks. The predictor measures were: university admission exam results (A-levels); critical thinking test scores (skills & dispositions); and non-verbal intelligence scores. Hierarchical regressions showed A-levels significantly predicted 10% of the final degree score and the 11-item measure of ‘inference skills’ from the California Critical Thinking Skills Test significantly predicted an additional 6% of degree outcome variance. The findings from this study should inform decisions about the precise measurement constructs included in aptitude tests used in the higher education admission process.