کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
395890 666083 2008 10 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Improving artificial neural networks’ performance in seasonal time series forecasting
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه مهندسی کامپیوتر هوش مصنوعی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Improving artificial neural networks’ performance in seasonal time series forecasting
چکیده انگلیسی

In this study, an artificial neural network (ANN) structure is proposed for seasonal time series forecasting. The proposed structure considers the seasonal period in time series in order to determine the number of input and output neurons. The model was tested for four real-world time series. The results found by the proposed ANN were compared with the results of traditional statistical models and other ANN architectures. This comparison shows that the proposed model comes with lower prediction error than other methods. It is shown that the proposed model is especially convenient when the seasonality in time series is strong; however, if the seasonality is weak, different network structures may be more suitable.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Information Sciences - Volume 178, Issue 23, 1 December 2008, Pages 4550–4559
نویسندگان
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