کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
4454221 1620824 2015 7 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Forecasting of dissolved oxygen in the Guanting reservoir using an optimized NGBM (1,1) model
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم زیستی و بیوفناوری علوم محیط زیست علوم زیست محیطی (عمومی)
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Forecasting of dissolved oxygen in the Guanting reservoir using an optimized NGBM (1,1) model
چکیده انگلیسی

An optimized nonlinear grey Bernoulli model was proposed by using a particle swarm optimization algorithm to solve the parameter optimization problem. In addition, each item in the first-order accumulated generating sequence was set in turn as an initial condition to determine which alternative would yield the highest forecasting accuracy. To test the forecasting performance, the optimized models with different initial conditions were then used to simulate dissolved oxygen concentrations in the Guanting reservoir inlet and outlet (China). The empirical results show that the optimized model can remarkably improve forecasting accuracy, and the particle swarm optimization technique is a good tool to solve parameter optimization problems. What's more, the optimized model with an initial condition that performs well in in-sample simulation may not do as well as in out-of-sample forecasting.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Environmental Sciences - Volume 29, 1 March 2015, Pages 158–164
نویسندگان
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