Climate change and recent water level variability in Patagonian proglacial lakes, Argentina

A long series of lakes (~ 150) borders the Patagonian Andes (south of ~ 38°S), most of which are a geomorphologic relict of Pleistocene glaciations. Employing instrumental records, we inspected lake water level departures from seasonal variations in seven proglacial lakes: Lacar, Mascardi, Steffen, Escondido, Puelo, Vinter, and Argentino. Lakes north of ~ 42°S show maximum gage (water) level during austral winter months; lakes between ~ 42° and ~ 45°S appear transitional; the one lake south of ~ 50°S (Argentino) shows maximum water level in early autumn. Most lakes show moderate level fluctuation throughout yearly records and, in general, show heteroscedacity. Furthermore, Hurst exponents reveal persistent behavior (i.e., long-term memory effect) in all water level series. In most lakes there are no trends in deseasonalized mean and maximum water levels (Seasonal Kendall test). Lake Mascardi–Manso River system (mostly fed by melt water from the retreating Manso Glacier) is a contrasting example that shows a decreasing trend during summer months that we ascribe to the also declining ice volume. Harmonic analysis (Fourier and wavelet transform) of deseasonalized mean and maximum water level time series shows interannual and decadal periodicities that we link to the occurrence of El Niño and/or the Antarctic Oscillation. The associated phase spectrum indicates that there is a ~ 13-month lag between ENSO occurrences and its effect on anomalous lake water levels. Increased snow accumulation during austral winters usually follows summertime El Niño events, which normally result in increased melt water volume that occurs with about one-year delay during the following (austral) spring/summer.