Real-time forecasting of Hong Kong beach water quality by 3D deterministic model

Bacterial level (e.g. Escherichia coli) is generally adopted as the key indicator of beach water quality due to its high correlation with swimming associated illnesses. A 3D deterministic hydrodynamic model is developed to provide daily water quality forecasting for eight marine beaches in Tsuen Wan, which are only about 8 km from the Harbour Area Treatment Scheme (HATS) outfall discharging 1.4 million m3/d of partially-treated sewage. The fate and transport of the HATS effluent and its impact on the E. coli level at nearby beaches are studied. The model features the seamless coupling of near field jet mixing and the far field transport and dispersion of wastewater discharge from submarine outfalls, and a spatial–temporal dependent E. coli decay rate formulation specifically developed for sub-tropical Hong Kong waters. The model prediction of beach water quality has been extensively validated against field data both before and after disinfection of the HATS effluent. Compared with daily beach E. coli data during August–November 2011, the model achieves an overall accuracy of 81–91% in forecasting compliance/exceedance of beach water quality standard. The 3D deterministic model has been most valuable in the interpretation of the complex variation of beach water quality which depends on tidal level, solar radiation and other hydro-meteorological factors. The model can also be used in optimization of disinfection dosage and in emergency response situations.

► We develop a 3D hydrodynamic model for daily forecasting HK beach water quality.
► The model is unique in the extent of field data assimilation and validation.
► A near field plume model is dynamically coupled with the 3D circulation model.
► Beach water quality is highly dependent on tidal variations and solar radiation.
► Accuracy is >80% in forecasting compliance/exceedance of water quality standard.