The impact of water and agriculture policy scenarios on irrigated farming systems in Italy: An analysis based on farm level multi-attribute linear programming models

The objective of this paper is to evaluate the impacts of agriculture and water policy scenarios on the sustainability of selected irrigated farming systems in Italy, in the context of the forthcoming implementation of the directive EC 60/2000. Directive EC 60/2000 (Water Framework Directive) is intended to represent the reference norm regulating water use throughout Europe. Five main scenarios were developed reflecting aspects of agricultural policy, markets and technologies: Agenda 2000, world market, global sustainability, provincial agriculture and local community. These were combined with two water price levels, representing stylised scenarios for water policy. The effects of the scenarios on irrigated systems were simulated using multi-attribute linear programming models representing the reactions of the farms to external variables defined by each scenario. The output of the models consists of economic, social and environmental indicators aimed at quantifying the impact of the scenarios on different aspects of sustainability relevant for irrigated farming systems. Five Italian irrigated farming systems were considered: cereal, rice, fruit, vegetables and citrus. The results show the diversity of irrigated systems and the different effects that water pricing policy may produce depending on the agricultural policy, market and technological scenarios. They also highlight a clear trade-off between socio-economic sustainability and environmental (water, nitrogen, pesticide) sustainability. Water pricing will have, in most cases, less impact than agricultural markets and policy scenarios, though it appears to be an effective instrument for water regulation in the least intensive irrigated systems considered. This emphasises the need for a differentiated application of the Water Framework Directive at the local level as well as a more careful balance of water conservation, agricultural policy and rural development objectives.