Statistical validation of structured population models for Daphnia magna

• Model verification using statistical techniques and inverse problems.
• Density dependent mechanism-based structured population models for Daphnia magna.
• Model comparison techniques including Akaike information content based scores.
• Uncertainty quantification for estimated parameters.

In this study we use statistical validation techniques to verify density-dependent mechanisms hypothesized for populations of Daphnia magna. We develop structured population models that exemplify specific mechanisms and use multi-scale experimental data in order to test their importance. We show that fecundity and survival rates are affected by both time-varying density-independent factors, such as age, and density-dependent factors, such as competition. We perform uncertainty analysis and show that our parameters are estimated with a high degree of confidence. Furthermore, we perform a sensitivity analysis to understand how changes in fecundity and survival rates affect population size and age-structure.