کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
4526856 1323861 2007 17 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Test application of Bayesian Programming: Adaptive water quality management under uncertainty
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه علوم زمین و سیارات فرآیندهای سطح زمین
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Test application of Bayesian Programming: Adaptive water quality management under uncertainty
چکیده انگلیسی

A new method, Bayesian Programming (BP), developed by Harrison [Harrison KW. Multi-stage decision-making under uncertainty and stochasticity: Bayesian Programming. Adv Water Resour, submitted for publication] is tested on a case study involving optimal adaptive management of a river basin. The case study considers anew the process of permitting pulp mills on the Athabasca River in Alberta, Canada. The problem has characteristics common to many environmental management problems. There is uncertainty in the water quality response to pollutant loadings that will not be completely resolved with monitoring and the resolution of this uncertainty is impeded by the stochastic behavior of the water quality system. A two-stage adaptive management process is optimized with BP. Based on monitoring data collected after implementation of the first-stage decision, the uncertainties are updated prior to the second decision stage using Bayesian analysis. The worth of this two-stage adaptive management approach to this problem and the worth of monitoring are evaluated. Conclusions are drawn on the general practicality of BP for adaptive management. Potential strategies are outlined for extending the BP approach to secure further benefits of adaptive management.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Advances in Water Resources - Volume 30, Issue 3, March 2007, Pages 606–622
نویسندگان
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