An analysis of the risks of non-compliance with the European organic standard: A categorical analysis of farm data from a German control body

This paper quantitatively analyses the risk of non-compliance with European regulations on organic farming in Germany. Based on the economics of crime, we derive hypotheses regarding the factors that are expected to influence non-compliance. We use a data set from an important organic control body that contains farm and control data for the period from 2007 to 2009. Ordinal logistic regression models are used to test our hypotheses. The following characteristics of organic farms significantly increase the probability of non-compliance: short organic farming experience, farm size and the existence of conversion area.

► Econometric analysis of risks of non-compliance to organic standards is novel.
► Hypotheses are derived based on the “Economics of Crime” approach.
► Organic control data from a German control body is analysed.
► Results confirm risk factors used in qualitative risk assessment so far.