کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
4576367 1629968 2013 11 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Climate change impact and uncertainty analysis of extreme rainfall events in the Apalachicola River basin, Florida
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه علوم زمین و سیارات فرآیندهای سطح زمین
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Climate change impact and uncertainty analysis of extreme rainfall events in the Apalachicola River basin, Florida
چکیده انگلیسی

SummaryClimate change impact on rainfall intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves at the Apalachicola River basin (Florida Panhandle coast) is assessed using an ensemble of regional climate models (RCMs) obtained from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. The suitability of seven RCMs on simulating temporal variation of rainfall at the fine-scale is assessed for the case study region. Two RCMs, HRM3–HADCM3 and RCM3–GFDL, are found to have good skill scores in generating high intensity events at the mid-afternoon (2:00–4:00 PM). These two RCMs are selected for assessing potential climate change impact on IDF curves. Two methods are used to conduct bias correction on future rainfall IDF curves, i.e., maximum intensity percentile-based method, and sequential bias correction and maximum intensity percentile-based method. Based on the projection by HRM3–HADCM3, there is no significant change in rainfall intensity at the upstream and middle stream stations but higher intensity at the downstream station. RCM3–GFDL projected increased rainfall intensity from upstream to downstream, particularly at the downstream. The potential temporal shift of extreme rainfall events coupled with overall increased intensities may exacerbate flood magnitudes and lead to increased sediment and nutrient loadings to the estuary, especially in light of sea level change.


► Two RCMs are suitable for generating fine temporal scale rainfall at the study region.
► Climate change impact on rainfall IDF curves at the Apalachicola River basin.
► Uncertainty analysis based on seven regional climate models.
► Rainfall intensity is projected to increase ∼2 fold.
► Potential temporal shift of extreme rainfall events.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Hydrology - Volume 480, 14 February 2013, Pages 125–135
نویسندگان
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