A methodology to diagnose the effect of climate change and to identify adaptive strategies to reduce its impacts in conjunctive-use systems at basin scale

SummaryA methodology to analyze impact, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in conjunctive-use systems at basin scale is presented. Based on the value obtained for various indices under possible future scenarios (indices obtained from the results of a system management model), a systematic procedure is presented to identify problems and solutions to adapt to climate change effects. The future hydrological scenarios to be analyzed can be approached by starting from the historical series available for the system and taking into account the changes expected in the key statistics of the series. A method to predict the expected changes in the key statistics using the results of previous climate change studies in the area has been developed. A “downscaling” procedure is proposed to translate the climatic variations into results on a basin scale. The methodology has been applied to the case study of the Serpis River Basin (Eastern Spain).

► A method has been proposed to generate future hydrological scenarios of a system.
► A series of indices are suggested to identify problems and solutions in a system.
► The methodology has been demonstrated in an application to the Serpis River Basin.