Interannual variability and predictability of water table levels at Santa Fe Province (Argentina) within the climatic change context

SummaryIn recent times, significant areas of the Northeastern Argentine (NEA) have been affected by climatic fluctuations which have caused serious damages in ecosystems and people’s livehoods, both by floods and droughts. This has mainly occurred in the Santa Fe Province, having a great impact on the underlying unconfined aquifer. This paper analyzes the relationships between meteorological variability and water table levels in the context of climate variability and climatic change in the lower Carcarañá river experimental basin (about 4700 km2), located in the Santa Fe Province. The goal of the study is to obtain long-term (interannual) predictions of water table levels in the region. The methodology used responds to a hypothetical conception of the temporal series having a signal formed by random components with characteristics of white noise. Singular Spectral Analysis (SSA), among other non-parametric techniques were used to identify fluctuations and trend changes in climatic time-series. These characteristics provide valuable information for the evaluation of climatic evolution and for the detection of variations in this evolution, suggesting a climatic change either by natural mechanisms or by anthropogenic impacts. A positive trend in precipitation is found throughout the studied region with water table levels showing a similar spatial–temporal behavior. The SSA gives significant periodicities between 3 and 8 years showing a possible link between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and precipitation and water table levels. The periodicities linked with ENSO are always present and the structures of the series are similar for the different studied periods. The results obtained, even if they are experimental constitute a first approximation. In general, they are promising, since the generated basis will enable to face further and more complex stages.

► The paper shows a positive trend in precipitation and water table levels.
► SSA shows periodicities between 3 and 8 years showing a possible link with ENSO.
► The periodicities linked with ENSO are always present.
► The structures of the time series are similar for the different studied periods.
► The results constitute a first approximation for the forecast of the water table.