Hydrological modeling of tropical closed Lake Ihotry (SW Madagascar): Sensitivity analysis and implications for paleohydrological reconstructions over the past 4000 years

SummaryLake Ihotry is a closed saline lake extending in the semi-arid southwestern part of the Madagascar Island. Monitoring of lake level and chemistry, rainfall and pan evaporation close to the lake was conducted over more than two years, recording large seasonal variations in both lake area and salinity. In addition, diatom and pollen data from a 4000 years-sediment core showed that hydrological fluctuations of much larger magnitude have occurred in the past. The instrumental record was used to establish the present-day lake water balance and to calibrate a lake level and chloride content model at a daily time step. Sensitivity experiments showed that the present-day lake is very sensitive to rainfall variations, both through direct rainfall on the lake surface and through the local shallow groundwater availability. In the sediment core, diatom data document a wet episode with freshwater conditions from ca. 3300 to 2550–2000 cal. yr, followed by a desiccation trend punctuated by large variations of diatom-inferred salinity between ≈2250 and 1350 cal. yr, and finally the onset towards modern conditions by 700–650 cal. yr. A digital elevation model enabled to quantitatively reconstruct the morphometric parameters of an open lake. These lake area–depth–volume relationships were used in the combined water and chloride balances model to investigate conditions of the freshwater lake, and to simulate short-term oscillations of diatom-inferred salinity and the lake evolution towards its present state. We conclude that whatever the rainfall and/or evaporation changes accounting for, the regional water table evolution was an important factor controlling the long-term lake evolution, through its successive connection/disconnection to the lake.