Modeling study of growth and potential geohazard for LUSI mud volcano: East Java, Indonesia

The mud volcano known as LUSI first erupted in May 2006 in East Java, Indonesia. The eruption has continued for over two years, and potentially will continue for many years to come, impacting an ever larger area. An obvious and significant question is how extensive the impacted area will become in the coming years. The answer is important for planning scenarios for the relocation of people and infrastructure and for managing the environment and economy. To make such a prediction, an understanding of the geological processes controlling the mud volcanic evolution is needed.A three-dimensional simulation model was built to predict the area affected by the mudflow over a ten-year period, with a special focus on the period from December 2007 until June 2010. The primary model inputs are the mud debit rate, the rate of subsidence and the topography. The model prediction was validated at the December 2007 time step by comparing the results with satellite images from the same period. The simulation was found to provide a good approximation for the mud overflow and growth. The results indicate that the mudflow tends to spread to the west and particularly to the east and north from the currently inundated area. The model predicts that in June 2010 the peak of the mud volcano will have risen 26 m above the original ground level, and the maximum subsidence will have been −63 m below the original ground level. The dynamic subsurface condition in the area creates geohazard risks, and these are also discussed in this paper.